US May employment data better than expected; copper prices expected to find support today amid progress in trade talks [SMM Copper Morning Comment]

      SMM, June 9: On Friday evening, LME copper opened at $9,684.5/mt, reaching a high of $9,728.5/mt during the session and a low of $9,665.0/mt towards the end of the session, before closing at $9,670.5/mt, down 0.38%. Trading volume reached 15,603 lots, and open interest stood at 288,236 lots. The overall trend saw an initial surge followed by a fluctuating decline, presenting a volatile pullback pattern. On Friday evening, the most-traded SHFE copper 2507 contract opened at 78,580 yuan/mt, surging to 78,820 yuan/mt at the beginning of the session, before fluctuating downward. It reached a low of 78,480 yuan/mt and eventually closed at 78,620 yuan/mt, down 0.24%. Trading volume reached 32,807 lots, and open interest stood at 200,380 lots. The overall trend showed an initial surge followed by a fluctuating pullback, with prices oscillating around the moving average. On the macro side, data indicated that US employment growth in May was better than expected, although the growth rate slowed compared to the previous month, suggesting that the US Fed may wait longer before cutting interest rates. Data from the US Department of Labor showed that employers added 139,000 jobs in May, fewer than the 147,000 added in April but exceeding the 130,000 increase forecast in a survey of economists. Due to better-than-expected US employment data, the US dollar strengthened, putting pressure on copper prices. On the fundamental side, imported copper continued to replenish supplies, but mainstream supply remained relatively tight amid trade circulation demand, with high brand price spreads. Currently, there is still a gap between existing open interest and warrant stocks. With smelters expressing export intentions, delivery supplies for this week are limited, and there is a risk of further widening of the price spread between futures contracts under the backwardation structure next month. Overall, the US dollar index has pulled back to some extent, while trade negotiations between the US and India, Japan, the EU, South Korea, and Thailand have all made certain progress. It is expected that copper prices will stabilize today, with support at the bottom.